Description

This analysis provides a forecast of OM prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-04-13 2.211255 2.974185 4.036044 5.669350 8.208449e+00 1.217099e+01 1.918943e+01
2025-04-20 1.436983 2.205069 3.480067 5.906703 1.083122e+01 2.154460e+01 5.114928e+01
2025-04-27 1.055276 1.808899 3.267952 6.662786 1.574963e+01 4.501383e+01 1.982849e+02
2025-05-04 0.810373 1.529201 3.127612 7.645233 2.391129e+01 1.094575e+02 1.431960e+03
2025-05-11 0.614041 1.251012 2.838650 8.164719 3.378358e+01 2.736756e+02 3.239823e+04
2025-05-18 0.452067 0.973036 2.385356 7.799198 4.115694e+01 6.127988e+02 2.498912e+08
2025-05-25 0.334064 0.748961 1.947589 7.053081 4.594308e+01 1.306699e+03 NaN
2025-06-01 0.273538 0.645284 1.809893 7.517995 6.674264e+01 6.778593e+03 NaN
2025-06-08 0.226680 0.558942 1.677551 7.927179 9.733379e+01 8.559745e+04 NaN
2025-06-15 0.193656 0.498754 1.602906 8.684175 1.569769e+02 1.098416e+09 NaN
2025-06-22 0.166305 0.444797 1.519228 9.350673 2.546749e+02 NaN NaN
2025-06-29 0.138613 0.379384 1.345884 8.995755 3.293765e+02 NaN NaN
2025-07-06 0.113340 0.315405 1.150261 8.176923 3.806144e+02 NaN NaN
2025-07-13 0.098957 0.283676 1.087751 8.677710 6.668969e+02 NaN NaN
2025-07-20 0.089513 0.265915 1.084343 10.030279 1.670938e+03 NaN NaN
2025-07-27 0.081785 0.251601 1.091326 11.803842 5.650809e+03 NaN NaN
2025-08-03 0.073290 0.231242 1.049804 12.814379 1.829318e+04 NaN NaN
2025-08-10 0.063788 0.203732 0.945727 12.268038 3.519656e+04 NaN NaN
2025-08-17 0.054985 0.176559 0.827703 11.034422 4.538234e+04 NaN NaN
2025-08-24 0.050182 0.164502 0.801300 11.908280 3.251992e+05 NaN NaN
2025-08-31 0.045854 0.153097 0.771848 12.688891 9.555966e+06 NaN NaN
2025-09-07 0.042530 0.144988 0.760556 14.106047 NaN NaN NaN
2025-09-14 0.039393 0.136742 0.742747 15.376514 NaN NaN NaN